On April 22, XBIT latest observation report pointed out that Bitcoin experienced an explosive rebound after the Easter weekend, breaking through the $88,000 mark in the early Asian trading session, and rebounding sharply from the low point of the sell-off caused by former US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech on April 2, almost recovering all the losses. This rise resonated with the simultaneous rise of gold. The two assets emerged in the holiday market with thin liquidity, triggering heated discussions in the market on the change of the logic of safe-haven asset allocation.
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This Bitcoin rebound presents completely different market characteristics from last December. At that time, Bitcoin recorded only mild fluctuations in the calm “Christmas market”, while this round of rise showed strong momentum in the Asian trading session, with an intraday increase of more than 6%, and a single-day market value increase of more than 10 billion US dollars. XBIT (dex Exchange) researchers believe that the repeated expectations of Trump’s policies and the rise in geopolitical risks have prompted funds to flow into digital assets for risk aversion. It is worth noting that this rebound coincides with the end of the global stock market quarterly earnings season. The S&P 500 index has fallen by more than 2% in April. The weakness of traditional risk assets further highlights Bitcoin’s “digital gold” attributes.
The strength of Bitcoin resonates with the carnival in the precious metals market. Spot gold hit a record high of $2,430 per ounce in the Asian session on Thursday. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the fall of the US dollar index below the 105 mark, and the continued increase in holdings by central banks in many countries have jointly pushed gold’s year-to-date increase to more than 15%. “The positive correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to 0.78, a new high since 2021.” XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts pointed out, “This linkage breaks the traditional perception of the substitution relationship between the two, suggesting that the market’s pricing of systemic risks has entered a new stage.”
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The deep changes in the market are reflected at the capital flow level: last week, the spot Bitcoin ETF ended 12 consecutive weeks of net outflows, recording a net inflow of US$13.4 million in a single week, in sharp contrast to the net outflow of US$708 million in the previous week. The options market risk reversal indicator shows that the 30-day option implied volatility skewness narrowed from -12% to -3%, indicating a significant decline in the put option premium. “This reflects that institutional investors are rebuilding their long positions,” XBIT (dex Exchange), “The current open interest volume has rebounded 23% from the monthly low, but the gamma exposure is still below the historical average, indicating that there is still room for adding positions.”
Faced with the key technical resistance level of $88,800 (corresponding to the 200-week moving average and the January 2024 high), market differences gradually emerged. Supporters believe that an effective breakthrough will open up the psychological barrier to $100,000, triggering the entry of more institutional funds; skeptics point out that the current market trading volume is still 35% lower than the peak, and insufficient liquidity may lead to the risk of false breakthroughs.
“Beware of the recurrence of the ‘Santa Claus market’ after Easter,” warned the chief investment officer of XBIT (dex Exchange). “When market participants return, the return of liquidity may trigger profit-taking. Investors can choose XBIT. Smart contracts can be flexibly upgraded to support complex financial products such as leveraged trading and derivatives (such as dYdX); token holders can participate in protocol decision-making (such as Uniswap’s UNI token) to enhance the decentralization of the platform; users as liquidity providers (LPs) can directly earn transaction fees, and the distribution of income is more transparent.”
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XBIT maintains a neutral stance and advises investors to pay attention to three signals: 1. The effectiveness of the $88,800 resistance level; 2. Whether the gold/Bitcoin correlation breaks through the 0.8 threshold; 3. Whether the spot ETF can maintain continuous net inflows. As the U.S. SEC hearing in May approaches, regulatory developments may become a catalyst for the next stage of market volatility. The current market consensus is that if Bitcoin stabilizes above $88,800, it may mark a paradigm shift from “speculative assets” to “institutional safe-haven allocations.”
Disclaimer: The information provided in this press release is not a solicitation for investment, nor is it intended as investment advice, financial advice, or trading advice. It is strongly recommended you practice due diligence, including consultation with a professional financial advisor, before investing in or trading cryptocurrency and securities.